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Grain Quotes


Crop Futures (MO) Basis Cash Price
Corn BU$2.2525 $.+.10 JULY $2.35
Milo CWT $2.2525 $-0.40 JULY corn $3.31
Wheat BU $4.9350 $-0.27 JULY kc $4.66
Wheat BU
Texline/Sedan
$4.9350 $-0.27JULY kc $4.66

Prices Updated: 6/27/06

New Crop Basis


Crop Basis
Corn +.18 dec 06
Milo $-0.30 dec corn 06
Wheat $-.27 july.06 kc
Wheat
Texline/STATE LINE
$-0.27 JULY.06 kc

Prices Updated: 5/2/06
Daily Market Commentary


Tuesday, June 27, 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FCStone Group, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures or options on futures contracts, OTC products. Commodity trading is risky and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of futures performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of FCStone Trading LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved. Doug Jackson 2829 Westown Parkway, Suite 200 www.fcstone.com West Des Moines, IA 50266 515-223-3788 FCStone Grain Recap CORN: Despite an improvement in weekly crop conditions, values rebounding on lingering dry weather fears. Monday night USDA rated the corn crop 71% G/E, up 3 from last week and compared to 65% last year. National crop rated 1 point better than 2004 on this date when final yield was 160 bu/acre (ratings topped out in 2004 at 77% G/E in August). Corn Conditions Weekly 2006 2005 Change IA 78 77 + 4 NE 71 87 - 6 MN 82 70 + 3 SD 70 79 + 4 MO 67 54 + 1 KS 70 68 + 5 IL 72 32 - 5 IN 57 56 + 1 OH 66 54 + 3 WI 68 68 + 2 MI 66 61 + 6 NATL 71 65 + 3 Ratings up 4 in Iowa and South Dakota, up 5 in Kansas and up 6 in Michigan. Ratings down 5 in Illinois and down 6 in Nebraska. Only Nebraska and South Dakota are rated poorer than last year. Illinois 40 points better than last year with Nebraska 16 points worse. Iowa topsoil moisture 43% short versus 55% last week and 31% last year. Illinois topsoil moisture 42% short versus 93% last year. Nebraska topsoil moisture 57% short versus 46% last week and 19% last year. South Dakota topsoil 45% short versus 51% last week and 5% last year. North Dakota topsoil 47% short vs 38% last week and 2% last year. Particular dryness prevailing from central and west central Illinois through central Iowa. Weather forecast holds little chance of needed precipitation but temperatures are projected at or below normal into July 10 as we approach the threshold of corn pollination. Field reports generally suggest a uniform corn crop with corn “holding up well” despite persistent dryness. All acknowledge the need for continual timely rains however through July to maintain crop prospects. Agronomy models show Iowa precipitation at or below two inches in July could still result in substantial yield loss. Trade already debating the direction and magnitude of crop ratings changes for next week. National cash corn prices averaging 9 cents below loan. Ocean freight moving up 15% in 30 days with the cash spread on corn from PNW to the Gulf near 15 cents per bushel. Well followed university agronomist indicating no particular bias regarding US corn yield prospects based on current weather pattern. Trade continues to talk about reduced Chinese corn exports with dwindling stocks there. Some June 27, 2006 Doug Jackson www.fcstone.com Page 2 515-223-3788 FCStone Grain Recap privates now forecasting China exports next year at no more than 2 mmt versus USDA 4 mmt projection helping ramp up US export ideas. Funds long 170,000 contracts of corn futures this morning having sold 11,000 contracts Monday and having liquidated 79,000 contracts in 10 days. April ethanol production up 21% from last year in line with USDA annual forecast. 150,000 tons of old crop corn reported sold to Egypt. Average trade guess for key Friday corn stocks figure at 4362 compared to 4321 a year ago. This implies third quarter US domestic corn feed use down 5% from last year’s unusually large level and up 7% from a year before. Interesting to again contemplate our earlier work from Friday and Monday suggesting that total world acreage of oilseeds and corn may need to increase nearly 75 million acres by 2010 to balance biofuels led demand. SOYBEANS: Values rebounding on persistent dry weather fears. November values continuing in a multimonth sideways trade. Oil gaining sharply with funds buying 6,000 contracts. Monday night USDA rated the US soy crop 67% G/E, unchanged from last week and compared to 59% last year when record 43.3 yield was achieved. This the third best rated crop on this date in 12 years. Soy Conditions Weekly 2006 2005 Change IA 75 74 + 3 NE 66 80 + 1 MN 79 63 + 1 SD 68 72 + 4 MO 62 44 + 2 AR 47 35 + 1 KS 72 62 + 2 IL 68 33 + 1 IN 59 54 + 2 OH 58 62 0 MI 64 57 - 1 WI 67 62 - 1 NATL 67 59 0 Iowa soy rating up 3 from last week, South Dakota up 4. Nebraska, South Dakota and Ohio soy ratings worse than last year. Canada expected to ban SRMS from all feed with US expected to follow. Possibly increasing meal demand about 500,000 tons over time. Funds short 22,000 beans, 7,000 meal and long 43,000 oil this morning. Average trade guess looking for record large bean stocks figure in Friday report at 1012 versus 699 last year. Some field reports indicating poor stands and slow growth in soy from dry weather. Still current crop ratings are optimistically suggesting record yield potential. Any type of strong yield will keep US soy stocks burdensome well through next year. Talk of Malaysian government authorizing construction of 14 new biodiesel plants with another 5 to 10 plants being authorized. Ultimately this could boost Malaysian production capacity for biodiesel to June 27, 2006 Doug Jackson www.fcstone.com Page 3 515-223-3788 FCStone Grain Recap over 2 mmt by 2008 against very little production today. Some forecasting global biodiesel production capacity to reach near 15 to 16 mmt by 2007 indicating a boost of 9 to 10 mmt compared to December 2005. All of this requiring surging world oilseed acreage and production to balance long term supply demand. Trade looking for reduced bean plantings in key Stocks and Acreage report Friday. Barring a massive acreage surprise, trade will still view US new crop soybean balance table able to tolerate moderate crop losses and still maintain adequate/burdensome supplies. Still, soy flat price action will reflect day to day weather conditions and ideas. WHEAT: Values surging in response to deteriorating US spring wheat condition report and thoughts of lower US HRW production. Winter wheat crop rated 29% G/E, unchanged from last week and compared to 49% last year. 53% harvested with Kansas 81% done versus 48% average. Oklahoma 97% done. Nebraska 12% complete versus 4% average. Illinois 65% completed. Winter Wheat Conditions Weekly 2006 2005 Change KS 22 36 0 OK 8 44 0 TX 7 45 0 CO 10 44 + 1 NE 17 44 0 AR 77 30 0 MO 55 57 0 IL 73 62 0 IN 78 66 0 OH 70 77 - 1 MT 63 52 + 10 OR 69 65 + 2 WA 75 72 + 3 NATL 29 49 0 Spring wheat rated 57% G/E, down 3 from last week and compared to 77% last year. Currently on the path to a July 1 spring wheat rating that will be the fourth worst in 15 years. North Dakota rating down 5 for the week and down 25 points from last year. June 27, 2006 Doug Jackson www.fcstone.com Page 4 515-223-3788 FCStone Grain Recap US Spring Wheat Conditions Weekly 2006 2005 Change ND 57 82 - 5 SD 26 81 + 3 MT 69 76 - 1 WA 67 58 + 1 NATL 57 77 - 3 Kansas Wheat Commission suggests smaller Kansas wheat crop. USDA will reestimate total wheat production in mid July. Trade looking for larger spring wheat plantings in Friday Acreage report. Funds short 1,500 Chicago wheat and long 52,000 Kansas City this morning. Hot, dry conditions forecasted for US spring wheat areas to further threaten crop prospects there. As detailed in our wire dated June 20, current and projected spring wheat crop ratings this year could suggest a spring wheat yield near 33 bu/acre. This far below the implied 39 bu/acre indication in USDA’s June all wheat production estimate and well below last year’s 37.1 yield. Despite larger spring wheat acres, a smaller spring yield and possible modest reduction in winter wheat production, could find US all wheat production easily below 1800 versus 1814 projection in June. This to set the stage for all US wheat carryout down to or below 400 million bushels that may suggest equilibrium in nearby Chicago futures into fall near $4.00 maintaining current values. Trade still looks for Kansas City to gain on Chicago values. India indicating it is close to signing two deals to import 2 mmt of wheat on top of the 1.2 mmt purchased earlier. 3.6 million bushels of deliverable wheat in Kansas City today versus 2.5 a year ago. Hutchinson deliverable stocks at 19 million versus 9 million a year ago. Trade looking for wheat stocks in USDA’s Friday report at 548, very close to USDA projected ending stocks in latest supply demand report. HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE July Corn 2.2575 2.22 2.2525 + 2 1/4 Sep Corn 2.37 2.3325 2.365 + 2 July Beans 5.805 5.7075 5.78 + 8 1/2 Aug Beans 5.87 5.765 5.85 + 9 1/2 July wheat 3.805 3.715 3.7825 + 9 3/4 Regards Doug Jackson FCStone
Long Term Market Commentary


THE CARRYOVER OF THE 2004 CROP FOR CORN WAS ESTIMATED BY USDA TO BE 2.055 BILLION BUSHELS. THIS HAS SOME IMPLICATION FOR THE CASH MOVEMENT OF CORN. ANY TIME THERE IS MUCH OF A RALLY IN THE FUTURES THE FARMER WILL BE THERE TO SELL. DESPITE THIS THE FUNDS HAVE BEEN BUYING THE FUTURES ON THE ANTICIPATION THAT DEMAND WILL IN FACT MOVE THE MARKET HIGHER GIVING THEM THE OPPORTUNIY TO MAKE MONEY. WORLD GRAIN STOCK ARE HIGHER IN WHEAT AND CORN. EPORTS HAVE SO FAR BEEN DISAPOINTING TRAILING USDA'S PROJECTIPON BY NEARLY NINE PERCENTAGE. WEATHER IS THE KEY TO THE SUMMER MARKET. IF A WEATHER PROBLEM OCCURS THEN THE FUNDS WILL JUSTFIY THEIR LONG POSITION. IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN BY MID SUMMER THEN THE FUNDS WILL MOST LIKLEY GO SHORT IN THE FUTURES INTO HARVEST. 3/10/05

New Crop Grain Outlook-August, 2005

2004 Top State Crop Production

USDA Grain Supply and Demand Report-March 2006

February 5, 2005 FCStone Grain Recap

Stock and Grain Report-March 31, 2005

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Historical Charts

Dalhart Milo Basis 98-02
Dalhart Corn Basis 97-02
Dalhart HRW Basis 98-02

Contact Information

For further information, contact:

Bryce Garrett 806-249-5695 E-Mail

Grain Markets and Facilities


Dalhart Consumers operates grain elevators from 5 locations.
  • The Dalhart location has 2.4 million bushels of storage capacity with 22,000 bu/hr elevation capacity.
  • The Hartley location has 3.2 million bushel storage capacity with 31,000 bu/hr elevation capacity.
  • The Texline location has 2.3 million bushel storage capacity with 15,000 bu/hr elevation capacity.
  • The Sedan location has 220,000 bushel storage capacity with 5,000 bu/hr elevation capacity.
  • The Wilco location has 2.6 million bushel storage capacity with 31,000 bu/hr elevation capacity.
  • The North Sedan location has 1 million bushel storeage capacity with 13,000 bu/hr elevation capacity
In total, Dalhart Consumers has 11.7 million bushels of storage and 117,000 bu/hr elevation capacity from 16 legs.

Dalhart Consumers offers numerous grain marketing programs including basis only forward contracts, futures first and other contracts.

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